The draft to be negotiated in COP21 Paris was published on Friday 23 October. At the 11th meeting of the ADP, held in Bonn from 19 to 23 October, the 195 member states approved the text to be signed in the forthcoming United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Brief conclusion about the draft
Positive: the text is well balanced, it maintains the structure, represents all the parties and increases the ambition by agglutinating all the options.
Negative: it is less precise, various key issues (financing, responsibilities, etc.) have yet to be agreed upon, and it is less comprehensible.
About the Copenhagen "ghosts": It is worth recalling that the Copenhagen COP started with a text of nearly 300 pages; we are now down to 51.
The new draft has grown from 20 pages to 51. The text is less precise and includes more options instead of making decisions (it now has 1.490 items in brackets, from the original 231).
The document has the same structure as the previous 5 October draft:
- DRAFT AGREEMENT
- DRAFT DECISION (This time, the decisions of workstream 2—created to increase the pre-2020 ambition—are presented in a separate document).
The draft does not solve the most controversial issues (responsibilities, mitigation, adaptation, finance, loss and damage, etc.) although the options for an agreement have increased significantly.
“Common but differentiated responsibilities”. Negotiations on this point are quite complicated. Many countries maintain the "developing/developed countries" distinction in the pre-defined blocks, although the "developed" countries reject this approach. Many of the countries formerly classified as "developing" account for a large proportion of current emissions. The top 20 emitters include China (#1), India (#4), Brazil (#8), Indonesia (#10), Mexico (#11), Iran (#12), Saudi Arabia (#17) and South Africa (#19). This week does not seem to have brought much progress in this direction.
Mitigation. Article 3 establishes the goals, which vary from quite ambiguous options to precise, quantifiable choices. Then, the wording and numerous brackets in the first item of the Mitigation article exemplify the complexity of the negotiations:
“[Parties aim [to achieve the global temperature goal], in accordance with the best available science [and the principles of the Convention], through [long-term global [low-[carbon][emission] transformation] [[climate][carbon] neutrality]], [and peaking their [net] emissions] [by 2030][20XX][as soon as possible], [with a [x]40-[y]70% net emission reduction below 2010 levels by 2050][according to the global carbon budget distribution based on climate justice], and [overall reductions][[net] zero emissions] [over the course of the century][by 2050][by 2100].2 ]” Pág 4. Article 3.
Finance is a key issue in the negotiations and one of the most controversial points. 130 countries, accounting for 80% of the world population, seek a clear promise in writing about the economic contribution by the developed countries. Essentially, there are two approaches:
- The Green Climate Fund, which should raise 100 billion per year, from public and private sources, starting in 2020. This agreement has again been deferred to COP21. Page. 18. Finance.
- Mechanism on Loss and Damage caused by climate change, through which these countries seek compensation for the damage caused by climate change. The G77 countries suggested that this point be considered separately from the Adaptation point, since it refers to impacts to which it is no longer possible to adapt. Page. 16. Article 5.
The global goal of 2ºC is maintained, although the figure of 1.5ºC has not yet been withdrawn (it is supported by around 100 countries). Page. 3 Option 1.
The reference to carbon pricing has been reintroduced. In the DRAFT AGREEMENT: “[Acknowledging that putting a price on carbon is an important approach for cost-effectiveness of the cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions,]” Page. 2 Pp15
The reduction targets in dispersed industries such as aviation and maritime have been recovered. “…pursue limitation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and marine bunker fuels…”. Page. 13. 19. International Transport Emissions
Important dates before COP21
The draft published on Friday 23 will be the one negotiated at COP21. There will not be any modifications in the text, but there will be high-level conversations around it:
A summary Report of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) will be published on 1 November by the UNFCCC Secretariat. 154 countries had published by 27 October.
Althoughthe draft will not be modified, the key issues will continue to be discussed in informal meetings as well as in a pre-COP ministerial meeting on 8-9 November.
G20 meeting in Turkey on 14-15 November.