Are the INDCs sufficient to keep global warming below 2ºC?

The emission reduction commitments published by 146 countries would lead to a temperature increase of 2.7ºC by 2100

No. The emission reduction commitments published by 146 countries would lead to a temperature increase of 2.7ºC by 2100. This was confirmed by Christiana Figueres, Secretary of the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), during the presentation of the Synthesis report on the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDCs).

Below we extract some data that we consider to be relevant from the INDC Synthesis Report and an infographic (produced by ConexiónCOP) which clearly shows what INDCs are and their implications for global warming:

Download the INDCs ConexiónCOP infographic

The Synthesis Report covers the commitments made by 146 countries (the European Union and its 28 member countries presented theirs jointly).

Approximately 75% of developing countries and all the developed countries submitted their contributions by the 1 October deadline. Therefore, another 13 countries have published their INDCs since the deadline and are not included in this summary.

Those countries represent 86% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. China, which tops the list, is responsible for 25%, the USA for 14%, the EU for 10%, India for 7% and Russia for 5%.

The most important areas for achieving the GHG reduction targets are renewable energy, energy efficiency, transport, agriculture and forestry.

Most countries (70%) presented unconditional INDCs. However, some countries, including Mexico, declared that they would adopt more ambitious commitments if they received international financial support.

The time horizon in the various INDCs also varies: 50% go beyond 2030, ranging up to 2050.

And 50% of the INDCs rely on carbon markets as a means of achieving their goals.

Since the current commitments are not sufficient to achieve the global goal of capping warming at 2ºC, the forthcoming Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in Paris (COP21) offers hope for linking the commitments into a global agreement that is capable of increasing the level of ambition through mechanisms for review and continuous improvement.

Source: INDCs, EFEVerde, ConexiónCOP, INDC Synthesis report



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