The equatorial Pacific has been warming for weeks at a pace that leaves no room for doubt. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that the El Niño phenomenon will rapidly intensify into a strong event between July and September 2026, with ocean temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in key monitoring regions of the equatorial Pacific. The event is expected to peak between November of this year and February of next.
“This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the UN WMO. The phenomenon is also arriving on a planet already in the grip of weeks of record heat. Germany, for instance, recorded its highest-ever temperature, 41.7°C.
Announcements like this one are often accompanied by nicknames such as “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño,” but those terms have no place in official terminology. What is official is the recommendation to prepare. And that’s the key point. Having several months’ advance warning only has value if that time is used to reduce risk. What separates a country that gets hit hard from one that manages to weather the storm isn’t the phenomenon itself, but how quickly forecasts are turned into concrete action.
What will I read in this article?
El Niño has accompanied humanity for centuries. The 1877-1878 event triggered a widespread drought that hit southern India particularly hard, where the lack of monsoon rains, combined with political decisions of the time, led to a severe food crisis. At the time, no one knew why the rains had failed. The science explaining the connection between the Pacific and global climate wouldn't arrive for more than 80 years.
Today the picture is very different. Countries track the phenomenon using ocean buoys and early warning systems, agriculture is far more resilient, and some of the most vulnerable places have strategic food reserves or public distribution systems that cushion the blow of a poor harvest.
In northern Peru, anchoveta, a member of the anchovy family that sustains much of the country’s small-scale fishing industry, is moving into deeper waters and further south as the sea warms. Nets are coming back increasingly empty, and some fishing communities have begun looking for alternative sources of income, such as ecotourism or aquaculture.
That doesn’t mean there’s no risk. This episode comes at a particularly challenging time for the global food system, which is already facing pressures stemming from fertilizer shortages, volatility in agricultural markets, and increasingly tight budgets in many developing countries. In 2025, 266 million people in 47 countries suffered acute food insecurity; a crisis driven by conflict, economic shocks, and climate events, according to the Global Network Against Food Crises report.
In Latin America, forecasts already point to some of the phenomenon's likely effects. For the July–September 2026 quarter, the World Meteorological Organization estimates a higher probability of below-normal rainfall in parts of Central America, the Caribbean, and northwestern South America, though it stresses that these are probabilistic projections, not certainties. As the phenomenon approaches peak intensity, El Niño’s historical pattern suggests the Pacific coasts of Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador could see warm, humid conditions, while southeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina could see above-average rainfall.
In light of this outlook, the international response is already underway. The UN WMO announced an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors. “Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said its Secretary-General.
In mid-June of this year, the FAO and the World Food Programme launched a Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal. They are requesting $202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries between June 2026 and March 2027. From Latin America and the Caribbean, the list includes Colombia, Venezuela, Haiti, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. The two agencies already have funding in place to reach 1.2 million people; another $167 million is needed to reach the remaining 7.6 million.
The question isn’t whether El Niño will arrive, but whether that lead time will be used to mitigate its impact.
The logic behind this approach is compelling: every dollar invested in anticipatory action can save up to seven dollars in losses and subsequent humanitarian response. In practice, this means intervening before the most severe impacts hit through cash transfers to vulnerable families, distribution of drought- and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection, water harvesting and storage systems, and infrastructure to reduce flood risk.
Funding and implementation of these measures must move forward while there's still room to prevent losses. A century and a half ago, no one understood why the rains had failed. Today the world has enough information to anticipate this phenomenon months in advance. The race is already on. The question isn’t whether El Niño will arrive, but whether that lead time will be used to mitigate its impact.